Net unrealized profit/loss + sentiment zones — Net Unrealized Profit/Loss — (market cap − realized cap) ÷ market cap, with sentiment zones
NUPL uses Bitcoin's UTXO cost-basis data: Net unrealized profit/loss + sentiment zones. It connects the current market with the prices at which coins were last moved.
The line moves through named moods: capitulation, hope, optimism, belief, euphoria. When everyone is euphoric, be careful. When everyone has given up, history says be curious.
Zones are drawn from past cycles. Each cycle runs cooler than the last, so extremes may arrive at lower values.