Smoothed NUPL cycle-bottom regimes below zero — 100-day NUPL trend; red bands mark sustained periods below zero that historically aligned with cycle bottoms
Bitcoin price beside the causal 100-day exponential moving average of NUPL. Red bands mark every period when that slow NUPL trend stayed below zero.
Zero is the historical cycle-bottom threshold. A move below it means aggregate unrealized losses persisted long enough to pull the 100-day trend negative; watch the direction and duration, not one daily print.
EMA smoothing deliberately lags raw NUPL. The rising prices and shallower negative lows seen across past cycles are historical observations, not a guarantee that the next cycle will behave the same way.