Audited on-chain cycle zones and qualified historical analogues — Causal on-chain cycle score; probability and analogue layers appear only after their walk-forward gates pass
A causal fixed-factor score built from twelve directional on-chain metrics in four equally weighted families, plus a non-directional whale-activity modifier and five label-dependent context metrics. Qualified 90/365/730-day regime probabilities and historical-analogue paths appear only after their independent walk-forward gates pass.
Positive readings describe historically accumulation-friendly states; negative readings describe distribution risk. A zone changes only after fourteen daily closes. Compare the valuation, spending, holder and activity families to see whether the headline score has broad confirmation.
Dotted paths are weighted outcomes of at least thirty spaced historical analogues from multiple halving cycles, with p20–p80 uncertainty—not price targets. Any layer that fails the 2017/2021/2025 audit is deliberately hidden. This is research context, not financial advice.